1. Las Vegas Raiders - QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana 

Not much explanation needed here, Mendoza has been the clear favorite for the first overall pick since the college football season ended. Don’t see anything changing in the last few days; this year’s draft doesn’t start until pick two.

2. New York Jets - LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State

Bailey has gotten the recent hype from the insiders to be the number two pick, but I don’t think that pick would make sense. Everyone says Glenn is trying to find a day one guy, not a project, but it’s the GM making the pick for the team, and I think Reese is the best option for New York.

3. New Orleans Saints (via Trade - ARI) - EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech

I think Arizona is desperate to move back, and New Orleans could use a pass rusher. Chase Young and Carl Granderson are there, but Bailey is a polished speed rusher that defensive coordinator Brandon Staley desires. Arizona finds its trade partner inside the top ten.

4. Tennessee Titans - RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

While I am not super high on taking running backs this early, this is a unique draft class where the top players mostly don’t play the highly valued positions. Love is the best player in the class, in my opinion, and the Titans need to help out Cam Ward in any way they can. 

5. New York Giants - S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

There has been a lot of buzz around Jordyn Tyson being the pick here, but I just can’t see John Harbaugh’s first pick being an injury-prone wide receiver. I think Downs can come in and be a part of the culture change that Harbaugh wants to bring to New York.

6. Cleveland Browns - WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

While there’s been a ton of buzz around Cleveland trying to move back or to take an offensive tackle, Fano and Mauigoa are more right tackles, and I think Tate is a home run pick for them. They can address tackle at twenty-four or try to move up for one later on in the first round. 

7. Washington Commanders - LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

While there is a clear hole at wide receiver, Styles has fallen right into their lap, and I would be surprised if they passed on one of the premier defenders in the class. Quinn gets his defensive signal caller and can look to address the wide receiver position later on in the draft.

8. Arizona Cardinals (via Trade - NO) - OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami

After trading back, the Cardinals get the right tackle they desperately need to acquire. Moving back seems like the best option for Arizona. Finding their right tackle while acquiring more picks to potentially move up for Simpson, or have more ammunition for next year’s class.

9. Kansas City Chiefs - WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

Kansas City has a ton of needs, but they have been linked to Tyson, and there has been a ton of recent buzz about him entering the top ten. They don’t usually get to pick this high, and Reid wants to get Mahomes as many weapons as possible when he returns from injury.

10. New York Giants - OT Spencer Fano, Utah

I was between Fano, Delane, and Ioane with this pick, but I ultimately think they look to address the offensive line with this pick. Fano gives them a short-term answer at guard, and can kick outside if their line were to deal with injuries. Long-term right tackle potential as well.

11. Miami Dolphins - CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

Delane is likely going to be the first cornerback taken with the injury concerns around McCoy. Miami’s secondary is a complete mess. Delane would come in right away and be their CB1. I did consider Bain here, but corner is a more pressing need, and Delane is the clear top guy.

12. Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Rueben Bain, Miami

Dallas is able to sit at twelve and still get one of the top pass rushers in this class. Bain slips here due to his historically short arms, but the guy is a complete edge defender who was dominant last season. A true home run pick for Dallas here without having to move up.

13. Los Angeles Rams - WR Makai Lemon, USC

The Rams don’t have a ton of holes to fill, but with the aging and injury-prone Davante Adams, they need to find a long-term answer. Lemon feels like a McVay-type player with his toughness. I did consider going with the offensive line, but this team is trying to win right now. 

14. Baltimore Ravens - OG Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State

The Ravens have a clear need along the interior of their offensive line, and Ioane would step in as an immediate starting guard. While they’ve been rumored to consider Sadiq at this spot, Ioane is the stronger overall prospect and addresses a more urgent need in helping Lamar Jackson.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (via Trade w TB) - OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia

I think the offensive tackle run is about to start, and Pittsburgh wants to get ahead of Detroit and take their long-term answer at left tackle. Freeling has a ton of upside, and the Steelers don’t want to miss out on whoever their top tackle in the second tier is. 

16. Cleveland Browns (via Trade w NYJ) - OT Kaydn Proctor, Alabama

The Jets move back and acquire even more picks. I think they want to go wide receiver, but the value doesn’t make sense here. Cleveland moves up to jump Detroit as they see the tackle run starting. Coming away with Tate and Proctor on Day 1 seems like a win for the Browns.

17. Detroit Lions - OT Blake Miller, Clemson

Desperate to take a tackle, Detroit takes Miller, who is the most pro-ready tackle of the likely first-rounders remaining. He has over fifty starts in college and will likely cause Sewell to move to the left side. While they likely would’ve liked Proctor or Freeling, those guys are gone.

18. Minnesota Vikings - S Dillon Thienemen, Oregon

I’ve had this pick in every version of my mock draft. Minnesota needs a true difference-maker in the secondary, and he’s the highest-rated player left on my board at this point. I couldn’t find a better landing spot for him earlier in the draft, so I think he’s the obvious choice.

19. Carolina Panthers - TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

Another pick I’ve had in each of my mocks. Carolina needs to add another weapon on offense, and he’s the best one available on the board here. There are rumors he may go before this, but I think that if he were to drop this far, the Panthers wouldn’t hesitate at all. 

20. Dallas Cowboys - CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

Dallas sat home and took Bain with their first choice. They need to address the secondary, and even with all the injury questions behind McCoy, I still think he’s the top corner in this class. I think he is well worth the risk and has the potential to be an elite CB1.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Trade w PIT) EDGE Akheem Mesidor, Miami

The Buccaneers trade out of No. 15 and still land the player I likely would have had them take anyway. Tampa Bay needs to add to its pass rush, and despite Mesidor already being 25 years old, he has consistently shown the ability to get after the quarterback and seems like a safe pick.

22. Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Keldrick Faulk, Auburn 

The Chargers need to bolster a thin pass-rush unit. Faulk gives them a solid run defender who can set the edge, who could develop into a better pass rusher under Mack’s mentorship. They could consider reaching for a guard here, but I don’t think there’s anyone worth taking here.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State

Lane Johnson likely only has one or two seasons left, and Iheanachor has plenty of upside but may need time to develop. Letting him sit behind Johnson before eventually taking over at right tackle would be a smart long-term plan for the Philadelphia Eagles.

24. New York Jets (via Trade - CLE) - WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana

After taking Arvell Reese and trading back from No. 16, the Jets find another weapon they have been linked to. They don’t have great receiver options outside of Garrett Wilson and desperately need to add to that room. Cooper Jr. felt like a reach at No. 16, but not at No. 24.

25. Chicago Bears - S Emmanuel McNeil Warren, Toledo 

While there is a major need along the defensive line, the Bears could choose to address that on Day 2, given the depth at the position and the fact that they hold two second-round picks. He’s the best player available here, and Chicago has said they want to draft that way.

26. Arizona Cardinals (via Trade - BUF) - QB Ty Simpson, Alabama

The Cardinals seem to be the team most linked to Ty Simpson, and I don't think Buffalo would love anyone still on the board here. Arizona trades back to grab their right tackle and then moves back up to grab their potential franchise quarterback in Ty Simpson. 

27. San Francisco 49ers - OT Caleb Lomu, Utah

Despite signing Trent Williams to an extension, I still think San Francisco looks to grab a developmental left tackle in Caleb Lomu. He has a ton of upside and can be the long-term replacement for Williams, while operating as their swing tackle for the short-term.

28. Houston Texans - DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio State 

With all the top offensive tackle prospects gone, I think Houston takes whoever their top interior defensive lineman is. The consensus seems to think that it is McDonald, and I could see the Texans falling in love with his ability to clog up holes and stop the run. 

29. Kansas City Chiefs - CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson

Kansas City traded away its top corner and lost its second top guy in free agency. They need to add bodies to that cornerback room, and despite Terrell seeming to be dropping, I still think he is the top cornerback available and deserves to go in the first round. 

30. Miami Dolphins - WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

After taking Delane with their first of two first-round picks, the Dolphins need to add to their receiver room. They already addressed the secondary, and many of the top offensive linemen are gone. Concepcion gives Miami a real threat on the outside that they desperately need. 

31. New England Patriots - EDGE Malachi Lawrence, UCF

The Patriots need to add to a pass rush that was their only real defensive weakness last season, and Lawrence has a ton of upside. Though not my top edge rusher available, I think Vrabel will be able to work with his tools and unlock him as a stud pass rusher. 

32. Seattle Seahawks - CB Chris Johnson, SDSU

I considered an edge rusher here, but cornerback feels like a more pressing need right now, and Johnson has been shooting up draft boards and could hear his name called Day 1. I also thought about running back, but I’m not convinced Seattle would go that direction this early.