Three Coaches with Make-or-Break Seasons in 2026
While these coaches may not all necessarily be on the hot seat, disappointing seasons in 2026 could cause these organizations to be looking in a different direction come next offseason. With a strong 2026 campaign, these coaches can set themselves up to continue to be the long-term answer for their respective teams.
Jason Keith - March 3rd, 2026
1. Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been one of the most patient teams in the NFL when it comes to their head coach position. Before the hiring of Zac Taylor in 2019, Marvin Lewis had been the head coach for the previous sixteen seasons despite not winning a single playoff game during that span. While that is the stat that stands out to many fans, Lewis had a decent amount of success, winning the division four times and making the playoffs seven times during his time in Cincinnati. That being said, many would argue the Bengals should have moved on from him much earlier than they did. Too often, his teams appeared unprepared in high-pressure moments, and the continued first-round exits ultimately overshadowed the progress he made during the regular season. Overall, the consensus is that the Bengals held onto him as a coach much longer than many other teams likely would have. Many people believe that history is repeating itself with current head coach Zac Taylor.
While Zac Taylor is in a different situation, having a Super Bowl appearance in 2021 and making it to the AFC Championship game in 2022, many credit those to the talent on the roster rather than his coaching ability. Primarily, the breakout of star quarterback Joe Burrow and the defense playing at an extremely high level during their Super Bowl run, despite Taylor being an offensive-minded head coach. The defense in the three games leading up to the Super Bowl allowed only 19.6 PPG and created an insane seven turnovers, while completely shutting down the high-powered Chiefs offense to just three points in the second half and overtime. They eventually ran into the Rams, who seemed to be more talented and better coached than the Bengals. The following season, they made the AFC Championship on the back of Joe Burrow and their top-ten rated defense, ultimately losing a competitive game against the Chiefs, who would go on to win the Super Bowl. Despite these two great post-season runs, fans seem to credit Burrow more than Taylor, and there may be some truth to that.
Since these deep playoff runs, the Bengals have failed to make the playoffs in three consecutive years. Two of those years, Burrow was dealing with injuries, which gives Taylor a bit of an excuse for not being able to get the team to the playoffs, with quarterback injuries ruining many teams' playoff chances. However, in Burrow’s lone fully healthy season, he had a near-MVP season where he threw for 43 passing touchdowns (1st) and 4,918 passing yards (1st), and the team still failed to make the postseason. While some could point out that Taylor is the one calling plays and is the offensive mind behind the high-powered offense, I would argue that having Burrow, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, along with Ja'Mar Chase and Tee Higgins, who are arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, could help make any offensive play caller look elite. The problem has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they have been in the bottom ten in total scoring and yardage for the past three seasons. With Taylor being unable to make the playoffs with such a high-powered offense, it begs the question: Is he holding Joe Burrow back?
This upcoming season is huge for Taylor and the entire Bengals organization as they are hoping to have Joe Burrow healthy for the season. Burrow, Chase, and Higgins have proven that when healthy, they can be one of the top offenses in the league. Taylor and the Bengals have to prioritize their defense this offseason, which ranked in the bottom three in both total yardage and scoring. If the Bengals miss the playoffs yet again, it will be easy to point to Taylor as the scapegoat and have a reset at the coaching position, giving the team a fresh look. It would certainly be an attractive head coaching opening, with already established superstar quarterback Joe Burrow, and a proven patient ownership group when it comes to the head coach. However, if they can go on a deep playoff run, Taylor will likely retain his job and be able to build off all the success he has had with Burrow. Overall, this is a make-or-break year for Taylor because of the pressure to win now.
Cincinnati Bengals Head Coach Zac Taylor
Photo by Katie Stratman/Imagn Images
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Photo by Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase
Photo by Getty Images
2. Dan Quinn - Washington Commanders
In his second stint as a head coach, Dan Quinn had a tale of two seasons. Much of the success and disappointment in his time in Washington is tied to the health and performance of young star quarterback Jayden Daniels. In both Daniels and Quinn’s first year with Washington, they surprised everyone when they burst onto the scene, winning twelve regular-season games and boasting a top-five offense. Washington went on to shock everyone even more, winning two road playoff games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the number one-seeded Detroit Lions. The Commanders' offense seemed unstoppable. Until they played the Eagles in the NFC Championship, who jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. This was still seen as an absolute win of a season for a team with so few expectations coming into the year. Losing the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the NFC Championship wasn’t so bad for a team that finished with the second-worst record in the league just a year prior.
Unfortunately, this past season did not go as planned. With expectations much higher coming off an NFC Championship appearance and year two of Jayden Daniels, the Commanders finished with a terrible 5-12 record. A big reason for this is that Daniels dealt with multiple injuries, only appearing in seven starts. Even in those seven games, Daniels didn’t play up to expectations, dropping nearly ten percent in completion percentage and dropping off significantly in both passing and rushing in terms of yardage and touchdowns per game. That, mixed with a defense that fell into the bottom six in both total scoring and yardage, left a lot of room for improvement for the upcoming season. This is even worse coming off of an offseason where they made plenty of “win-now” moves, trading for star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and signing multiple veterans like Bobby Wagner, Zach Ertz, and Javon Kinlaw. It looked like the average defense from 2024 was ready to take a step forward.
While many considered Quinn one of the top coaches after his first year, the poor performance of both the offense, even when Daniels was healthy, and the drop-off of the defense leaves 2026 as a big year for the Commanders' head coach. Quinn has been known for his defensive mind, being a successful defensive coordinator for both the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. That is the part that has been interesting to me. The Commanders' defense has been severely underwhelming, even during their deep playoff run. It seemed the majority of their success had come from offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels’ high-powered offense. Just one year after being praised for this success, Kingsbury was let go from the Commanders and quickly was given another job under Sean McVay, one of the league's top head coaches. This isn’t to say Quinn doesn’t deserve credit for the 2024 season because he absolutely does, but another year of defensive disappointment could put him in a position where the Commanders look to hire elsewhere for their head coach. Quinn isn’t on the hot seat as we speak, but another unsuccessful year with a bottom defense could have the defensive-minded head coach looking for a job elsewhere.
The Commanders have to make defense a top priority this offseason, likely using their seventh overall pick on a premier defender in this year's draft class, while adding impact free agents with their projected top five, $71 million in cap space. There is plenty of opportunity to improve as a defense and help turn the Commanders closer to their 2024 form. They invested heavily in the offensive line last offseason, trading for Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil and drafting first-round right tackle Josh Connerly, who had a solid rookie campaign. The pieces are there for the Commanders to be a competitive playoff team in 2026, and failure to do so could have them looking in another direction when it comes to the head coach. Quinn, who was seen only a year ago as a Coach of the Year candidate, has an upcoming season that could set him up as the long-term pairing with Jayden Daniels, or see himself looking for another defensive coordinator job if there is another disappointing season in Washington.
Washington Commanders Head Coach Dan Quinn
Photo by Geoff Burke/USA Today
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
Photo by Getty Images
Former Washington Commanders Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images
3. Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Todd Bowles has had a relatively successful run with the Buccaneers when just looking into the surface-level numbers, winning his division three out of the four seasons with the team. For a team transitioning off of the greatest quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady, making the playoffs in two of those three seasons looks like Bowles kept them intact. However, the NFC South has consistently been one of the worst divisions in all of football, so I don’t give them too much credit for winning it. Bowles has a total record of 35-33 and is 1-3 in playoff games during this span. The Buccaneers had their worst season under Bowles, going 8-9 and missing the playoffs (they went 8-9 in 2021 but won the NFC South), losing seven of their last nine games. While there were some injuries along both the offense and defense, not being able to win the clear worst division in the NFL with the clear best Quarterback and most proven head coach made for a disappointing season.
The Buccaneers have been stuck in a weird spot since the retirement of Tom Brady, where they are usually in the playoff mix, but no one is ever looking at them as a serious Super Bowl contender. A big reason for this has been quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has made a resurgence as a viable starting quarterback in the NFL after being labeled a bust by many after his time with Cleveland. In his first season with the Buccaneers (2023) an offense that was expected to be one of the league's worst, finished as a middle of the pack group along with a defense led by Bowles that helped carry them to the post season and even surprise an Eagles team in the first round of the playoffs before eventually losing to the Lions in the Wild Card round. However, after losing coordinator Dave Canales to the Panthers' head coaching job, the expectation was for the defense to carry them again in the NFC South heading into the 2024 season. In comes Liam Coen, who helped lead the Buccaneers to a top-five offense the season, while the defense took a minor step back. They then again lost their offensive coordinator to a head coaching vacancy in Jacksonville.
Coming into 2025, the Buccaneers were a slight favorite to win a weak NFC South division yet again, with the Falcons being right there with them. After starting scorching hot to start the season with a 6-2 record, the division looked like Tampa Bay’s to lose. However, the Buccaneers' defensive holes showed up and fell into the bottom third of the league in terms of scoring defense. This was a major reason for the second-half of the season collapse that occurred. Bowles, being the defensive mind of the defense, clearly takes a lot of the blame from the media and the fans, and rightfully so. The defense has taken a step back in each season that Bowles has been there. This, mixed with the meltdown that they had in the second half of the year, raises some questions the Buccaneers need to answer long-term. With the expected improvement from each of the other three NFC South teams, another step back from their defense could have the Buccaneers looking in another direction in terms of a head coach.
The competition is likely rising in the NFC South, with a young Carolina team coming off a playoff appearance, only expecting to get better, the Falcons hitting a home run hire in Kevin Stefanski with an ultra-talented offense, and the Saints potentially finding their franchise quarterback in Tyler Shough. The Buccaneers' reign as the NFC South powerhouse could be coming to a close. They have multiple veteran players who aren’t getting any younger; another step back could have ownership looking to reset their roster. If Bowles can keep Tampa Bay at the top of the NFC South this season, the Buccaneers would likely roll with him for a few more seasons as they continue to try to compete for championships. However, if they take another step back yet again, they could go into a rebuild mode and try to find a new coach to lead them into the future of the organization.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles
Photo by Getty Images
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
Former Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen
Photo by Getty Images
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